Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Latvijas Banka Monthly Newsletter: July 2018Latvijas Banka
Highlights:
Energy pushes consumer prices upward
Household lending increased in May
Growth in goods exports continued in May
In Focus:
Competitiveness of Latvia's Exports of Goods in the Region
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
North West Brexit Monitor September 2016sampopperVSNW
The document provides an economic monitoring report for the North West region of the UK after the Brexit referendum. Key points include:
- Recent economic data shows a rebound in the UK economy, but growth prospects remain uncertain due to Brexit.
- The North West saw the largest increase in business activity and consumer confidence bounced back across the UK in August.
- Manufacturing output fell in July but the sector rebounded in August. Services output and new business also increased.
- Terms of trade and regulations remain unclear as negotiations have not begun. EU funding is guaranteed for approved projects.
- Housing prices have not been significantly impacted yet but uncertainty may slow investment in commercial property.
- Unemployment rose slightly in the
Manufacturing output in Latvia grew 3.3% in February month-over-month according to seasonally adjusted data, though annual manufacturing output dropped 0.6% overall. Some manufacturing sub-sectors saw substantial annual growth, while the wind-down of a large metals company continued to negatively impact basic metals manufacturing. Exports of goods grew in February helping improve Latvia's foreign trade balance, despite challenges from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine which are important trade partners. Annual inflation dropped to 0.3% in March due to seasonal factors and lower food prices compared to the previous year.
The merchandise trade deficit widened in June, hitting yet another record of $3.6 billion, and much worse than expected. The gap was up from $3.5 billion in May (revised from $3.3 bln). Exports finally managed to rise after a nasty skid in the prior four months, when they dropped by a cumulative 10%.
But even that is not good news, as the modest 0.6% gain was entirely due to higher prices, as volumes fell a
hefty 1.4%.
Meantime, imports rose 0.8% and volumes were up 0.7%. This suggest that trade will drag even more heavily on overall growth in Q2, as we expect real net exports to chop more than 4 percentage points from GDP. We are quite comfortable being on the low side for Q2 GDP—we are now looking for a 2.0% drop in Q2, versus the BoC’s latest assumption of -1.0%, and today’s figures put the risks squarely to the downside.
We do look for some recovery in trade and overall growth in Q3, but suffice it to say that today’s brutal trade results cast some serious doubt on the Bank of Canada’s
- Annual inflation remained slightly negative at -0.1% in May due to falling fuel and food prices. This year's average annual inflation is projected to be the lowest since the 1990s.
- GDP grew 1.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2013, driven mainly by private consumption which expanded on the back of employment growth and wage increases.
- Exports of Latvian goods continued rising at 17.5% year-over-year in April despite weak external demand, demonstrating the flexibility of Latvian exporters.
This paper deals with the question of how consumption taxes, especially the value-added tax, affect consumption prices. The analyses are based on data from EU countries for the period 1970–2004. The starting point is a conventional supply-demand analysis of the tax incidence problem. This problem is solved using some simple price mark-up equations, Phillips curves and inflation forecast error equations. All these equations are estimated from panel data from EU countries using different estimators and variable specifications. In addition, an analysis is carried out with Finnish excise taxes using commodity/outlet level micro data for the period 1997–2004. A general result of all analyses is that about two thirds of a tax increase shifts to consumer prices. By contrast, there is less evidence on shifts to producer prices.
Latvijas Banka Monthly Newsletter: July 2018Latvijas Banka
Highlights:
Energy pushes consumer prices upward
Household lending increased in May
Growth in goods exports continued in May
In Focus:
Competitiveness of Latvia's Exports of Goods in the Region
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
North West Brexit Monitor September 2016sampopperVSNW
The document provides an economic monitoring report for the North West region of the UK after the Brexit referendum. Key points include:
- Recent economic data shows a rebound in the UK economy, but growth prospects remain uncertain due to Brexit.
- The North West saw the largest increase in business activity and consumer confidence bounced back across the UK in August.
- Manufacturing output fell in July but the sector rebounded in August. Services output and new business also increased.
- Terms of trade and regulations remain unclear as negotiations have not begun. EU funding is guaranteed for approved projects.
- Housing prices have not been significantly impacted yet but uncertainty may slow investment in commercial property.
- Unemployment rose slightly in the
Manufacturing output in Latvia grew 3.3% in February month-over-month according to seasonally adjusted data, though annual manufacturing output dropped 0.6% overall. Some manufacturing sub-sectors saw substantial annual growth, while the wind-down of a large metals company continued to negatively impact basic metals manufacturing. Exports of goods grew in February helping improve Latvia's foreign trade balance, despite challenges from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine which are important trade partners. Annual inflation dropped to 0.3% in March due to seasonal factors and lower food prices compared to the previous year.
The merchandise trade deficit widened in June, hitting yet another record of $3.6 billion, and much worse than expected. The gap was up from $3.5 billion in May (revised from $3.3 bln). Exports finally managed to rise after a nasty skid in the prior four months, when they dropped by a cumulative 10%.
But even that is not good news, as the modest 0.6% gain was entirely due to higher prices, as volumes fell a
hefty 1.4%.
Meantime, imports rose 0.8% and volumes were up 0.7%. This suggest that trade will drag even more heavily on overall growth in Q2, as we expect real net exports to chop more than 4 percentage points from GDP. We are quite comfortable being on the low side for Q2 GDP—we are now looking for a 2.0% drop in Q2, versus the BoC’s latest assumption of -1.0%, and today’s figures put the risks squarely to the downside.
We do look for some recovery in trade and overall growth in Q3, but suffice it to say that today’s brutal trade results cast some serious doubt on the Bank of Canada’s
- Annual inflation remained slightly negative at -0.1% in May due to falling fuel and food prices. This year's average annual inflation is projected to be the lowest since the 1990s.
- GDP grew 1.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2013, driven mainly by private consumption which expanded on the back of employment growth and wage increases.
- Exports of Latvian goods continued rising at 17.5% year-over-year in April despite weak external demand, demonstrating the flexibility of Latvian exporters.
This paper deals with the question of how consumption taxes, especially the value-added tax, affect consumption prices. The analyses are based on data from EU countries for the period 1970–2004. The starting point is a conventional supply-demand analysis of the tax incidence problem. This problem is solved using some simple price mark-up equations, Phillips curves and inflation forecast error equations. All these equations are estimated from panel data from EU countries using different estimators and variable specifications. In addition, an analysis is carried out with Finnish excise taxes using commodity/outlet level micro data for the period 1997–2004. A general result of all analyses is that about two thirds of a tax increase shifts to consumer prices. By contrast, there is less evidence on shifts to producer prices.
We are glad to share with you the Global M&A Partners' Industrial Insider our quarterly report on M&A transactions. Should you have any queries or M&A project, please contact your local Global M&A Partners industrial sector team member.
The presentation discusses manufacturing sales for Canada. The discussion will look at sales, orders and PMI index.
Note:
Goods producing is 30% of the GDP for Canada
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide PackRichard Ramsey
The document provides an economic analysis and update of purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys for Northern Ireland, the UK, Eurozone, and global economies for March 2021. Key points include:
- Global output growth and emerging market PMI increased while developed market PMI remained high. Eurozone, US, and UK composite PMIs all improved.
- Northern Ireland saw manufacturing and services output growth pick up while construction stabilized. UK and Republic of Ireland posted robust new orders growth while Northern Ireland orders continued shrinking.
- Input cost inflation accelerated sharply across sectors, and firms increased prices at their fastest rates, squeezing profit margins. Employment returned to growth in manufacturing and services after declines.
Global M&A Partners Industrial insider Q3 2018 focus on predictive maintenanceVeronique Zeid-Maurel
Happy to share with you our quarterly report on M&A activities in the industrial segment, there is a special focus on predictive maintenance. To know more, contact your local Global M&A Industrial sector team member. http://www.globalma.com/industry_sectors/industrials
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
The document provides an overview and analysis of purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys for various economies in August 2021. Some key points from the PMI surveys include: global composite PMI slowed to a 7-month high; global manufacturing output slowed to a 14-month low; divergence between developed and emerging market PMIs; and input cost and output price inflation remained high globally. The document also summarizes Northern Ireland's PMI results for August 2021, noting growth slowed in output, orders and employment compared to previous months.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
The document provides a summary of the September 2021 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey results for Northern Ireland, the UK, Eurozone, and global economies. Key findings include:
- Global composite PMI rose slightly but growth is slowing across regions. Inflation remains close to recent highs.
- UK and NI economies continue lagging behind the Republic of Ireland. NI private sector recovery is slower than other UK regions.
- NI manufacturing and services sectors reported output and employment growth in September but new orders contracted.
- Input cost and output price inflation are accelerating across sectors in NI, UK and globally at near record rates.
Global M&A Industrial insider Q4 2018 industrial machine visionVeronique Zeid-Maurel
Happy to share with you our quarterly report on M&A activities in the industrial segment, there is a special focus on industrial machine vision.
To know more, contact your local Global M&A Industrial sector team member.
https://www.globalma.com/industry_sectors
The document provides an analysis of purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys from April 2020 for various global economies, Eurozone countries, the UK and its regions, and Northern Ireland. Key highlights include:
- Global output growth slumped with services falling to a record low. All economies except China saw composite PMIs hit record lows in April.
- Northern Ireland's PMI fell to a new record low in April, with output, new orders, employment, and export orders all declining at record rates across sectors.
- Manufacturing and services output in Northern Ireland, the UK, and Ireland all posted steep falls and record lows, while construction also declined sharply. Northern Ireland saw the stee
Highlights:
* GDP – Growth rate accelerated in an number of sectors
* Manufacturing has maintained dynamic growth
* Prices are on the rise, albeit at a slower pace
In Focus:
* Does the financing from the EU structural funds improve the competitiveness of Latvian businesses?, autors: Oļegs Tkačevs
Lithuanian Economy - No 1, January 4, 2012Swedbank
The Lithuanian economy remained resilient in November despite weakening demand abroad. While manufacturing growth slowed, it continued to expand, and retail trade grew at its fastest pace since recovery began. Strong growth in the fourth quarter should help public finances as budget collection has lagged targets this year. However, both foreign and domestic demand are expected to slow in the coming year, easing inflation pressures.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI - July 2018 SlidepackRichard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) includes analysis of economic performance by sector in Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland. PMI surveys track variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across sectors. Index numbers above 50 indicate expansion and below 50 indicate contraction. The July 2018 survey update found that global output growth slowed with manufacturing at a 22-month low, while NI's private sector reported an acceleration in activity for the fourth month in a row at a faster rate than the UK. NI firms' optimism for the year ahead slipped to a 16-month low, the lowest of any UK region.
Šoreiz, sadaļā "Highlights":
* Inflation returns
* Moderate growth in retail
* Challenging environment for exporters
"In Focus":
* ICT is almost a perfectly performing sector, autors: Igors Kasjanovs
Highlights:
In August, annual inflation returns to positive territory
Manufacturing growing fast in July
External complications do not impair Latvia's exports going uphill
Sadaļā In Focus:
Research: Latvia's 2008-2009 wage adjustment stronger than thought before, by Ludmila Fadejeva and Olegs Krasnopjorovs
This document provides a summary of the December 2020 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey results for Northern Ireland and other economies. Key findings include:
- Global output growth slowed for the sixth consecutive month but remained in expansion territory. Input cost inflation hit a 9.5-year high.
- The UK and Republic of Ireland returned to growth in December led by manufacturing, while Northern Ireland's private sector remained in contraction across all sectors.
- Northern Ireland recorded the fastest rate of output contraction among UK regions in 2020. Firms reported ongoing declines in new orders, output, and employment in December.
- Input cost inflationary pressures increased in recent months across sectors in Northern Ireland,
Dear all,
I'm glad to share with you our quarterly report on M&A activities in the industrial segment, the Industrial Insider.
There is a special focus on the Industrial Internet Of Things, IOT.
Should you have any quieries, don't hesitate to contact your local Global M&A Partners' Industrials' sector team representative.
In February 2013, Latvian exports grew 9.6% year-over-year, led by growth in exports of wood and electrical machinery. Exports to Germany and Russia increased the most month-over-month. While Latvian exporters remained competitive, confidence declined in eurozone countries like Germany and Estonia. However, optimism outside the eurozone and growth in key sectors indicated Latvian exports would continue growing in 2013, albeit at a lower rate than 2012 depending on external demand.
The Latvian Economy - 2010 September (pdf)Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
* Economy faces temporary slowdown
* Inflation hovering around 0
* Current account back to normal
"In Focus":
* The new school bag of the 2017 budget contains homework, autors: Guntis Kalniņš
Global output growth slows due to slowing growth in the services sector, despite manufacturing returning to growth. The US sees growth slow to a 42-month low while the Eurozone and countries like China, Japan, Brazil and Russia post faster growth. The Northern Ireland private sector continues to see sharp declines in output, new orders, exports and employment, with all sectors contracting and business confidence at new lows. Regional comparisons show Northern Ireland having the sharpest declines in output and fastest rate of job losses of all UK regions.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document summarizes the state of the Lithuanian economy based on a monthly newsletter from Swedbank's Economic Research Department. It finds that while corporate profits are increasing, investments in fixed tangible assets continue to decline sharply. However, improving economic indicators and increasing capacity utilization suggest investments will need to increase to boost productivity and competitiveness. Retained earnings from higher profits and tax incentives are expected to be important sources of financing the needed investment growth in 2011. Continued recovery in domestic demand and exports also point to a gradual rise in credit availability and investments.
We are glad to share with you the Global M&A Partners' Industrial Insider our quarterly report on M&A transactions. Should you have any queries or M&A project, please contact your local Global M&A Partners industrial sector team member.
The presentation discusses manufacturing sales for Canada. The discussion will look at sales, orders and PMI index.
Note:
Goods producing is 30% of the GDP for Canada
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide PackRichard Ramsey
The document provides an economic analysis and update of purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys for Northern Ireland, the UK, Eurozone, and global economies for March 2021. Key points include:
- Global output growth and emerging market PMI increased while developed market PMI remained high. Eurozone, US, and UK composite PMIs all improved.
- Northern Ireland saw manufacturing and services output growth pick up while construction stabilized. UK and Republic of Ireland posted robust new orders growth while Northern Ireland orders continued shrinking.
- Input cost inflation accelerated sharply across sectors, and firms increased prices at their fastest rates, squeezing profit margins. Employment returned to growth in manufacturing and services after declines.
Global M&A Partners Industrial insider Q3 2018 focus on predictive maintenanceVeronique Zeid-Maurel
Happy to share with you our quarterly report on M&A activities in the industrial segment, there is a special focus on predictive maintenance. To know more, contact your local Global M&A Industrial sector team member. http://www.globalma.com/industry_sectors/industrials
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
The document provides an overview and analysis of purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys for various economies in August 2021. Some key points from the PMI surveys include: global composite PMI slowed to a 7-month high; global manufacturing output slowed to a 14-month low; divergence between developed and emerging market PMIs; and input cost and output price inflation remained high globally. The document also summarizes Northern Ireland's PMI results for August 2021, noting growth slowed in output, orders and employment compared to previous months.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
The document provides a summary of the September 2021 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey results for Northern Ireland, the UK, Eurozone, and global economies. Key findings include:
- Global composite PMI rose slightly but growth is slowing across regions. Inflation remains close to recent highs.
- UK and NI economies continue lagging behind the Republic of Ireland. NI private sector recovery is slower than other UK regions.
- NI manufacturing and services sectors reported output and employment growth in September but new orders contracted.
- Input cost and output price inflation are accelerating across sectors in NI, UK and globally at near record rates.
Global M&A Industrial insider Q4 2018 industrial machine visionVeronique Zeid-Maurel
Happy to share with you our quarterly report on M&A activities in the industrial segment, there is a special focus on industrial machine vision.
To know more, contact your local Global M&A Industrial sector team member.
https://www.globalma.com/industry_sectors
The document provides an analysis of purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys from April 2020 for various global economies, Eurozone countries, the UK and its regions, and Northern Ireland. Key highlights include:
- Global output growth slumped with services falling to a record low. All economies except China saw composite PMIs hit record lows in April.
- Northern Ireland's PMI fell to a new record low in April, with output, new orders, employment, and export orders all declining at record rates across sectors.
- Manufacturing and services output in Northern Ireland, the UK, and Ireland all posted steep falls and record lows, while construction also declined sharply. Northern Ireland saw the stee
Highlights:
* GDP – Growth rate accelerated in an number of sectors
* Manufacturing has maintained dynamic growth
* Prices are on the rise, albeit at a slower pace
In Focus:
* Does the financing from the EU structural funds improve the competitiveness of Latvian businesses?, autors: Oļegs Tkačevs
Lithuanian Economy - No 1, January 4, 2012Swedbank
The Lithuanian economy remained resilient in November despite weakening demand abroad. While manufacturing growth slowed, it continued to expand, and retail trade grew at its fastest pace since recovery began. Strong growth in the fourth quarter should help public finances as budget collection has lagged targets this year. However, both foreign and domestic demand are expected to slow in the coming year, easing inflation pressures.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI - July 2018 SlidepackRichard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) includes analysis of economic performance by sector in Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland. PMI surveys track variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across sectors. Index numbers above 50 indicate expansion and below 50 indicate contraction. The July 2018 survey update found that global output growth slowed with manufacturing at a 22-month low, while NI's private sector reported an acceleration in activity for the fourth month in a row at a faster rate than the UK. NI firms' optimism for the year ahead slipped to a 16-month low, the lowest of any UK region.
Šoreiz, sadaļā "Highlights":
* Inflation returns
* Moderate growth in retail
* Challenging environment for exporters
"In Focus":
* ICT is almost a perfectly performing sector, autors: Igors Kasjanovs
Highlights:
In August, annual inflation returns to positive territory
Manufacturing growing fast in July
External complications do not impair Latvia's exports going uphill
Sadaļā In Focus:
Research: Latvia's 2008-2009 wage adjustment stronger than thought before, by Ludmila Fadejeva and Olegs Krasnopjorovs
This document provides a summary of the December 2020 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey results for Northern Ireland and other economies. Key findings include:
- Global output growth slowed for the sixth consecutive month but remained in expansion territory. Input cost inflation hit a 9.5-year high.
- The UK and Republic of Ireland returned to growth in December led by manufacturing, while Northern Ireland's private sector remained in contraction across all sectors.
- Northern Ireland recorded the fastest rate of output contraction among UK regions in 2020. Firms reported ongoing declines in new orders, output, and employment in December.
- Input cost inflationary pressures increased in recent months across sectors in Northern Ireland,
Dear all,
I'm glad to share with you our quarterly report on M&A activities in the industrial segment, the Industrial Insider.
There is a special focus on the Industrial Internet Of Things, IOT.
Should you have any quieries, don't hesitate to contact your local Global M&A Partners' Industrials' sector team representative.
In February 2013, Latvian exports grew 9.6% year-over-year, led by growth in exports of wood and electrical machinery. Exports to Germany and Russia increased the most month-over-month. While Latvian exporters remained competitive, confidence declined in eurozone countries like Germany and Estonia. However, optimism outside the eurozone and growth in key sectors indicated Latvian exports would continue growing in 2013, albeit at a lower rate than 2012 depending on external demand.
The Latvian Economy - 2010 September (pdf)Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
* Economy faces temporary slowdown
* Inflation hovering around 0
* Current account back to normal
"In Focus":
* The new school bag of the 2017 budget contains homework, autors: Guntis Kalniņš
Global output growth slows due to slowing growth in the services sector, despite manufacturing returning to growth. The US sees growth slow to a 42-month low while the Eurozone and countries like China, Japan, Brazil and Russia post faster growth. The Northern Ireland private sector continues to see sharp declines in output, new orders, exports and employment, with all sectors contracting and business confidence at new lows. Regional comparisons show Northern Ireland having the sharpest declines in output and fastest rate of job losses of all UK regions.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document summarizes the state of the Lithuanian economy based on a monthly newsletter from Swedbank's Economic Research Department. It finds that while corporate profits are increasing, investments in fixed tangible assets continue to decline sharply. However, improving economic indicators and increasing capacity utilization suggest investments will need to increase to boost productivity and competitiveness. Retained earnings from higher profits and tax incentives are expected to be important sources of financing the needed investment growth in 2011. Continued recovery in domestic demand and exports also point to a gradual rise in credit availability and investments.
Annual inflation in May dropped slightly to 0.6% due to falling food prices, while core inflation remained at its April level. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter, remaining around 2.8% year-over-year. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has weakened investor sentiment and external demand, posing risks to Latvia's economy. Latvijas Banka has lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2014 in light of softer growth in key export partners and uncertainty from geopolitical tensions.
You’ll see from the reports in this edition of Market Monitor that, while there are tentative signs of
economic stabilisation, these are tempered by indicators that still advise caution for future trade.
Germany has recorded positive growth since the summer, but we still expect bank lending to
continue to decline. Spain, in contrast, records negative growth forecasts for the short- and mid-term,
but at least our indicators show that the high tide of payment defaults and insolvencies may finally
have peaked. In the UK, however, a turnaround in the rising insolvency trend is still not in sight, and
the troubled construction sector is forecast to continue to suffer into 2010. That said, the car
scrappage scheme, which started later than in many other countries, will provide some cushion for
the automotive sector in the coming six months.
Against this background, we continue to urge caution, not just when embarking on new trading
ventures, but also in trade with established customers. Essentially, businesses need to tread more
carefully in ALL their sales transactions – monitoring changes in the payment behaviour of current
customers and taking extra care in assessing the financial strength of new prospects.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
United Kingdom – with a spotlight on the construction and automotive sectors
Mexico – with a spotlight on the retail and chemicals sectors
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Czech Republic
The document discusses the positive trends seen in the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2010 based on an analysis of GDP, consumer spending, housing starts, industrial production, and unemployment rates. Specifically, it notes that real GDP grew 5.6% in Q4 2009 due to increased exports, inventory investment, and consumer spending. Housing starts rebounded but single-family starts declined. Consumer prices rose mildly while retail sales and vehicle sales increased. Industrial production also increased but at a slower rate. However, unemployment remained high at 9.7%.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2019Latvijas Banka
This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Bank deposits rose 1.2% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year in February as both businesses and households increased savings despite economic slowdown. Manufacturing output grew slightly by 0.7% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year in February, led by wood, metals, and furniture industries. Inflation rose to 0.4% in March due to both global commodity prices and domestic factors. Conditions are expected to be favorable for lending to improve following new housing loan rules and Eurosystem stimulus measures.
The document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 2009-2010. It finds that while private sector adjustments have been faster than expected, public sector adjustments still lag despite efforts. GDP is forecast to decline substantially in all three countries in 2009, with Latvia facing the steepest drop of around 17%. Deeper budget cuts are still needed in the public sectors of Estonia and Latvia to reduce budget deficits. Overall, a slow recovery is expected to begin in 2010, led initially by stabilizing exports, while domestic demand remains weak.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
1) Estonia has attracted the most foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP from euro area countries and other Baltic states since adopting the euro.
2) Latvia and Lithuania saw large drops in FDI, mainly due to restructuring at Swedbank.
3) Adopting the euro is expected to help Latvia attract more foreign investment by increasing credibility, though responsible fiscal policy is also important.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
The document summarizes recent economic data from the UK. It notes that GDP growth slowed to 0.5% in the third quarter of 2015, with services growth remaining strong but manufacturing and construction declining. Unemployment has fallen to 5.4%, its lowest since 2008, with reductions across age groups and durations of unemployment. Average weekly earnings grew 2.8% in the latest period, with private sector pay growth stronger than public sector. Real earnings growth has picked up from post-downturn lows but remains below pre-2008 levels in most industries.
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1. The Lithuanian Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department
by Ieva Vyšniauskaitė No. 01 • 2010 05 18
Economic Research Department. Swedbank AB. SE-105 34 Stockholm. Phone +46-8-5859 1000
E-mail: ek.sekr@swedbank.com www.swedbank.com
Legally responsible publisher: Cecilia Hermansson, 08-5859 1588.
Lina Vrubliauskienė +370 5 268 4275. Ieva Vyšniauskaitė +370 5 268 4156.
The bottom of the recession may have been reached in the
1st quarter of 2010
After two periods of expansion on a quarterly basis, Lithuanian GDP fell by 4.1% quarter on
quarter (2.9% year on year) during the 1st quarter of 2010, according to the first statistics
estimate. The contraction of GDP was to be expected because the economy was affected
by several adverse factors, such as the shutdown of the Ignalina nuclear power plant and
increases in oil and other commodity prices in the world markets. The recovery in exports
was not large enough to compensate for the persisting contraction in domestic demand.
We remain cautiously optimistic and expect economic growth on a quarterly basis to
become positive starting the 2nd quarter of 2010. Most recent business surveys point to a
slow revival in activity. Consumer confidence has also gradually become less negative, and
the housing sector is showing signs of stabilisation.
The forecasted upturn during the 2nd quarter will be led by the export-oriented
manufacturing sector, but domestic sectors will also show somewhat better results. The
economic downturn affected individual manufacturing sectors unevenly, and their recovery
will vary as well. Given 1st quarter results, we are becoming more optimistic regarding the
recovery of production volumes of, among others, rubber and plastics, wood, and paper
products.
Recovery of exports did not offset the
continuing contraction in domestic demand in
the 1st quarter of this year
The slow recovery of the Lithuanian economy
observed in the second half of 2009 failed to
continue this year. While the Lithuanian economy
recorded positive quarterly growth rates in the 3rd
and last quarters of 2009, in the 1st quarter of 2010
Lithuanian GDP fell by 4.1% on a quarter-on-
quarter basis (2.9% year on year), according to the
first statistics estimate.
The largest decrease in the value added was
observed in the construction sector as the real
estate market continued to stagnate. The change in
the value added created by the agricultural sector
was close to the decrease in the value added of the
whole economy, while the industrial sector recorded
the smallest decline in the value added. The decline
in the value added was somewhat absorbed by
positive changes in the indicators of transport and
storage enterprises.
GDP growth, quarter-on-quarter
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Even though the 1st quarter GDP results cannot
necessarily be regarded as good news, they were
slightly better than we forecasted. The GDP decline
in the 1st quarter was expected, given the following
adverse factors that played a part in economic
developments during that period.
2. The Lithuanian Economy
Economic Research Department, Swedbank
01 • 2010 05 18
2 (4)
First, despite an improvement in confidence,
household consumption remained anaemic due to
falling wages, poor employment prospects, and an
omnipresent cautiousness regarding spending.
Even though the share of electricity in the
consumption basket is quite small, a 30% increase
in electricity tariffs for household consumers due to
the decommissioning of the Ignalina nuclear power
plant exerted a further significant negative shock to
household spending. Second, although there were
some first signs of stabilization in the real estate
market (visible in the somewhat increased activity
and the slowdown in the decline of residential real
estate prices; over March 2010, prices in the capital
of Vilnius increased by 3.3% on a monthly basis),
the real estate market continued to stagnate. Real
output in the construction sector declined by 43%
during 2009, and contracted further by 40.8% year
on year in the 1st quarter. Investment activity
overall is likely to have kept on falling, given the
still-high spare capacity, high risk estimates, and
uncertainty about domestic and external demand
developments.
Finally, companies were subject to yet another set
of challenges in the beginning of the year because
of the rise in costs driven by the increases in
commodity prices. An increase in gas prices in
world markets, for instance, affected the
manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products.
The rise in electricity prices for companies due to
the Ignalina nuclear plant shutdown had an impact
on activities in the construction, paper, wood, and
textile sectors. The share of electricity in total cost
structure in these sectors in some cases could
reach about 10%. It will take more time for
companies to adjust to the increase in costs and/or
to pass through these cost increases to customers
because the recovery in domestic demand is
several months away and the revival in external
demand still insufficient.
Another setback is highly unlikely this year…
Even though some of the aforementioned adverse
factors will continue to be felt over the year to some
extent, the 2nd quarter will bring more favourable
developments. We are of the opinion that the
bottom of the economy has been reached;
however, we remain cautious and expect a slow
recovery going forward. Quarter-on-quarter GDP
rates are likely to be positive starting in the 2nd
quarter, while, on an annual basis, quarterly GDP
growth might be negative for some time.
There is no reason, however, to forecast another
setback of a large magnitude this year. Leading
indicators have pointed to a revival in activity for
several months: industry, retail, and services
sentiments have been generally on an upward trend
since the last quarter of 2009. Consumer sentiment
has also been improving since November 2009.
Consumer confidence indicator
-60
-40
-20
0
20
2008 2009 2010
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
Consumer confidence indicator (l.s)
General economic situation over next 12 months (l.s)
Unemployment expectations over 12 months (r.s)
Financial situation of households over next 12 months (l.s)
Savings over next 12 months (l.s)
Data on Lithuania’s large export-oriented industrial
sector lead us to forecast somewhat better
developments starting in the 2nd quarter. The year–
on–year contraction of industrial production has
also been slowing since May 2009, while, over the
1st quarter of 2010, industrial production contracted
by 4% compared to the same period a year ago1
,
which is a much smaller decline than during the last
quarter of 2009. Over March, industrial production
rose by 1% year on year (the first increase in
annual terms since October 2008)
Manufacturing activity results might not be
spectacular as of yet, given the reliance of the
sector on the performance of the Orlen Lietuva
(previously Mazeikiu Nafta) oil refinery. The closing
down of this refinery for repairs for approximately a
month in the beginning of the year was one of the
main factors behind the fall of manufacturing activity
by 6.4% year on year over the 1st quarter of 2010.
Manufacturing activity excluding refined mineral
products, meanwhile, rose by 1% over the 1st
quarter compared with the same period a year ago,
and, over March, increased by 16% month on
month and 5.3% year on year.
We forecast industrial production to still contract
overall this year, and some ad hoc movements are
possible, given the uncertainties regarding domestic
recovery and mixed signals coming from the main
trade partners. The improvement in industrial
1
None of the industrial production indicators in this and
the following paragraphs are seasonally or working-day
adjusted.
3. The Lithuanian Economy
Economic Research Department, Swedbank
01 • 2010 05 18
3 (4)
production results, however, is unlikely to face
material impediments this year.
Lithuania’s industry, year-on-year
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Industrial production
Manufacturing (refined petroleum products excluded)
Industrial confidence indicator
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2008 2009 2010
Industrial confidence indicator
Assessment of stocks
Production expectations over the next month
Assessment of total orders
Even considering the drastic contraction rates in
2009 and thus the very low comparative base, the
rebound of the transport sector is one of the most
significant. The sector appeared to be surprisingly
resilient in spite of some adverse factors, including
cost increases and the elimination of preferential
tax rates for biofuel starting in the beginning of
2010. This improvement is primarily driven by the
increase in cross-border, rather than domestic,
services.
Domestic demand-oriented sectors might
experience the first glimpses of light at the end of
the tunnel starting in the 2nd quarter as well. As
mentioned above, confidence indicators portray
steadily improving expectations, while retail sales at
the end of the 1st quarter also showed better
results.
Manufacturing production volumes improving,
though individual sector developments uneven
The economic downturn affected manufacturing
sectors unevenly; however, hardly any sector
started this year without a scratch. Whereas
companies expect to break even or show a profit at
the end of this year, the majority of them consider
2009 a lost cause and are content to have survived.
Industrial production, year-on-year
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Transport
Machinery repairs
Metals
Manufacturing
Furniture
Food
Beverages
Textile
Wood
Optical instruments
Chemicals
Rubber, plastics
Paper
2009 (IV) 2010 (I)
Food, tobacco, and refined mineral product sectors
proved to be the most resilient in 2009 (it is though
necessary to mention that these sectors are
generally considered less susceptible to business
cycle fluctuations). Production of paper and related
products also experienced a less severe decline in
their production volumes. The computer and optical
equipment sector, the one higher-value-added
sector with a more or less significant share in
Lithuania’s total industrial production volumes, was
able to grow last year mostly due to its successful
previous penetrations into the niche export markets.
Developments in the machinery repairs sector have
been highly uneven as companies might have
preferred to fix rather than buy new equipment in
certain periods; meanwhile, transport equipment,
furniture, textile, and wood and building material
production fell severely during the first half of 2009.
Although generally less susceptible to business
cycle fluctuations, manufacturing of chemicals and
chemical products plunged in the first half of 2009
due to the fall in prices of pesticides and increase in
gas prices in world markets. In terms of value
added, it appears that medium- value- added
sectors, which occupy the larger share of
Lithuanian industrial production, have been overall
more resilient.
4. The Lithuanian Economy
Economic Research Department, Swedbank
01 • 2010 05 18
4 (4)
Exports of goods, year-on-year
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Optical instruments
Chemical products
Food
Textile
Metal etc
Furniture
Machinery
Mineral products
Other
Wood
Plastics
Paper
Transport
2010 (I)
As industrial production starts to show the first signs
of recovery, some sectors will be driving growth,
and some may be experiencing difficulties for a
somewhat longer time. Compared with the
contraction during the first three quarters of 2009,
production of paper, wood, textile, and food
appears to have rebounded the most. Metals have
also shown improvement, although, after seemingly
strong growth in the last quarter of 2009, production
fell on a yearly basis again in the 1st quarter of
2010. Chemicals and chemical product growth had
already moved into positive territory in the second
half of 2009, while manufacturing of rubber and
plastics products, after contracting during all of
2009, registered a quite comfortable positive growth
rate in the 1st quarter of 2010.
It is apparent that the increase in production
volumes in most sectors (for instance, plastics and
rubber, textile, wood, and, to some extent, metals,
was due to the recovery in external demand. For
some sectors, however, this is not so clear:
chemicals and chemical product exports improved
only marginally last year, while they fell by 11.6%
during the 1st quarter. Exports of food also declined
on a yearly basis in the 1st quarter; however, the
large share of the production of the sector (about
60% of the total) is consumed domestically.
The sectors that took the lead in export recovery at
the end of 2009 due to improvement in external
demand – for instance, wood, furniture, plastics,
and rubber – are likely to continue performing well.
The good news is that the majority of domestic
demand-oriented sectors, except building materials,
are generally considered less susceptible to
business cycle fluctuations. Thus, food,
pharmaceuticals (about 55% consumed in
Lithuania), and also paper (about 58% sold in
Lithuania) are likely to be able to increase their
production this year. Building materials are unlikely
to rebound until the middle of 2011, while
beverages (close to 80% of production sold in
Lithuania) will also be experiencing difficulties for
some time to come.
The longer-term developments in Lithuania’s
industrial sector should be on a subtler and more
complex level, and should be promoting a shift in
industrial structure. Even though traditional
manufacturing industries like wood and metal
processing will always play an important role in
Lithuania due to the available resources, growth in
the higher-value-added products will be required to
generate sustainable growth - i.e., sophistication of
the products, more effective use of capital, the
strengthening of horizontal links, and the creation of
new clusters within the Baltic region.
Ieva Vysniauskaite
Swedbank
Economic Research Department
SE-105 34 Stockholm
Phone +46-8-5859 1028
ek.sekr@swedbank.com
www.swedbank.com
Legally responsible publisher
Cecilia Hermansson, +46-88-5859 1588.
Lina Vrubliauskienė, +370 5 268 4275.
Ieva Vyšniauskaitė, +370 5 268 4156
Swedbank’s monthly newsletter, The Lithuanian Economy is published as a service to our
customers. We believe that we have used reliable sources and methods in the preparation
of the analyses reported in this publication. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or
completeness of the report and cannot be held responsible for any errors or omissions in
the underlying material or its use. Readers are encouraged to base any (investment)
decisions on other material as well. Neither Swedbank nor its employees may be held
responsible for losses or damages, direct or indirect, owing to any errors or omissions in
The Lithuanian Economy.